«For
many supporters of the European project, the EU has entered
“uncharted territory,” and for the first time in its 60-year
history, they worry that at least some aspects of EU integration may
be stopped or reversed. Others contend that there is a chance that
the multiple crises currently facing the EU could produce some
beneficial EU reforms and ultimately transform the bloc into a more
effective and cohesive entity. Possible future scenarios for the EU
include the following:
Muddling
Through. The EU would largely continue to function as it currently
does, without any significant treaty changes or decisionmaking
reforms, and find some degree of common solutions to crises such as
those posed by Greece’s economic situation and increasing migratory
pressures. The EU would continue to pursue integration and common
policies where possible, with or without the UK as a member.
Establishing
Two Speeds. The EU would become a two-speed entity, consisting of a
strongly integrated group of “core” countries and a group of
“periphery” countries more free to pick and choose those EU
policies in which they wish to participate. Some analysts suggest
that a two-speed EU already exists in practice, with varying
membership on a range of EU initiatives, such as the Eurozone,
Schengen, justice and home affairs issues, and defense policy. Others
suggest that a formal two-tier structure could undermine solidarity
and create frictions between “core” and “periphery” member
states.
A
Looser, More Intergovernmental Configuration. Further EU integration
would essentially be put on hold, and possibly reversed in some
areas, with sovereignty on certain issues reclaimed by national
capitals. This may be most likely should reform-minded euroskeptic
parties come into power in more EU countries and if the UK is
successful in its bid to carve out additional EU policy exemptions. A
looser structure may make it easier for the EU to expand ultimately
to include Turkey, the remaining aspirants in the Western Balkans,
and other countries such as Georgia and Ukraine.
A
Tighter, More Integrated Configuration. The EU would emerge from its
current challenges more united and integrated. Some suggest such an
outcome could actually be more likely in the event of “Grexit”
and/or “Brexit,” leaving a somewhat smaller EU of member states
more aligned on the need for further political and economic
integration. This configuration would likely not encourage further EU
enlargement.»
Kristin
Archick (Specialist in European Affairs), TheEuropean Union: Current Challenges and Future Prospects,
Congressional
Research Service,
June
21, 2016
